Is the San Antonio Housing Market Crashing in 2026?

Updated: October 20, 2026

No. San Antonio-area prices have eased from a year ago and homes for sale are near balance. That's a slower, balanced market, not a crash. With JBSA orders, that means more choices and room to ask for concessions. The catch: the payment still has to work at today's rates.

What's in the video

• Back in January 2026 I walked through the national forecasts for 2026 (NAR, Zillow, Redfin) as reported by the San Antonio Business Journal. Those were forecasts, not guarantees.
• Why I didn't expect a crash: inventory was rising and sellers were negotiating more.
• What it means for VA and military buyers with a set report date.

Is San Antonio heading for a crash?

No. Prices have eased, but nothing like a crash. A market with a balanced supply of homes for sale doesn't force buyers to rush, and it doesn't force sellers to slash prices. For current figures, see the Texas A&M Real Estate Center's Housing Activity report for the San Antonio area and the latest SABOR press release.

What's happening in Cibolo and Schertz?

Local numbers move month to month, so check the latest before you make an offer. For the local detail, see my Cibolo market update and Schertz market update.

Should I wait for a crash if I have PCS orders?

No. Your report date drives the timeline, not the headlines. - Ask for concessions. In a balanced market, closing costs, rate buydowns and repairs are all on the table, and so are builder incentives. - Use your VA loan. Zero down plus seller-paid concessions go further in a market like this one.

My recommendation: if your orders put you here in the next 3-6 months, start your search now and let the data set your offer, not the fear.

FAQ

Is the San Antonio housing market crashing in 2026? No. San Antonio-area prices have eased from a year earlier and inventory is near balance. That's a soft, balanced market, not a crash.

Is 2026 a good time to buy near JBSA-Randolph? For buyers it's one of the better setups in recent years: more homes to pick from, more time to decide, and sellers open to concessions. The right time still depends on your report date and budget.

Should I wait for rates to drop before buying? Waiting can work, but more buyers usually come back when rates drop, and that cuts into your negotiating room. Run the payment at today's rate. If it works, a refinance later is an option, not a plan.

Your next move

Got orders to JBSA? Book a buyer call with me. We'll go over neighborhoods, drive times to your gate, and what your BAH covers right now. For base-by-base PCS guides, see jbsahomes.com.

Anthony Sharp, REALTOR®: U.S. Air Force veteran · Military Relocation Professional (MRP) · TX License #734794 · Sharp Realty Group, brokered by Real Broker, LLC · Lives in Cibolo, TX · I've helped 100+ military families buy and sell around JBSA · My VA closings typically take 25-35 days.

Sources: Texas A&M Real Estate Center Housing Activity; SABOR press releases. The forecasts in the video are third-party projections, not guarantees. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.